Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL222020 200923 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     30.20     93.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    25.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      1.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      1.10             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     98.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        47.6  57.3  61.5  60.7  59.5  37.1  37.1  37.1 VU VU VU VU VU  U  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    2.0   2.0   3.0   0.0   0.0   1.0   1.0   1.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        140.0 140.0 130.1 119.4 102.7  93.0  93.0  93.0  F  F  F  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    61.0  37.0  38.0  65.0 -18.0 -38.0 -38.0 -38.0  N  N  N  N  U VU VU VU
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   41.0  37.0  38.0  38.0  38.0  35.0  35.0  35.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   6.0  16.0  10.0  20.0  14.0  18.0  18.0  18.0  N  U  U VU  U VU VU VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%