Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL222020 200924 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     30.90     92.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    25.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      6.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      1.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    104.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        53.8  57.6  62.3  66.2  51.4  47.3  47.3  47.3 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    3.0   2.0   0.0   0.0   2.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        139.3 130.1 117.4 109.8  97.7  93.0  93.0  93.0  F  F  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    71.0  43.0  65.0  52.0  -4.0  -3.0  -3.0  -3.0  N  N  N  N  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   41.0  41.0  40.0  41.0  43.0  37.0  37.0  37.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  18.0  15.0  26.0  23.0  25.0  26.0  26.0  26.0 VU  U VU VU VU VU VU VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%