Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL222020 200924 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     31.60     91.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    25.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    10.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      0.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      1.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    105.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        56.8  58.9  69.3  66.5  45.9  45.9  45.9  45.9 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    2.0   0.0   0.0   1.0   1.0   1.0   1.0   1.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        125.7 117.4 109.8 104.4  96.1  96.1  96.1  96.1  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    45.0  74.0  67.0 -17.0  -8.0  -8.0  -8.0  -8.0  N  N  N  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   40.0  40.0  42.0  41.0  38.0  38.0  38.0  38.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  16.0  24.0  20.0  29.0  22.0  22.0  22.0  22.0  U VU VU VU VU VU VU VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons