Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL222020 200925 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     33.60     87.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    20.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    20.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      0.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      0.30             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    113.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        64.9  50.8  39.6  46.1  46.1  46.1  46.1  46.1 VU VU  U VU VU VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    1.0   1.0   1.0   1.0   1.0   1.0   1.0   1.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        111.2 106.0 104.3 101.1 101.1 101.1 101.1 101.1  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    -5.0  12.0 -35.0   3.0   3.0   3.0   3.0   3.0  U  U VU  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   40.0  41.0  37.0  32.0  32.0  32.0  32.0  32.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  24.0  26.0  15.0   9.0   9.0   9.0   9.0   9.0 VU VU  U  U  U  U  U  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons