Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL232020 200918 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     11.70     31.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     52.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     43.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     76.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        20.9  22.6  21.9  27.7  38.1  40.4  56.2  59.5  N  N  N  N  U  U VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    7.0   8.0  12.0  16.0  26.0  12.0   5.0   7.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        122.3 124.6 122.3 113.6 103.5 101.6  99.8  98.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    49.0  23.0   5.0  11.0  25.0  34.0  15.0  39.0  N  U  U  U  U  N  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   63.0  63.0  65.0  63.0  63.0  65.0  69.0  69.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -9.0  -5.0   0.0   5.0  11.0   6.0  -5.0   0.0  F  F  N  N  U  N  F  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.3%        1.3%        0.8%
 25kt / 24h        1.0%        8.2%        4.6%
 30kt / 24h        0.3%        2.9%        1.6%
 35kt / 24h        0.3%        2.9%        1.6%
 40kt / 24h        0.3%        2.3%        1.3%
 45kt / 36h        0.1%        5.7%        2.9%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        1.6%        0.8%
 55kt / 48h        0.1%        0.9%        0.5%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        0.7%        0.4%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.3%        0.2%