Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL232020 200918 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     12.30     33.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     40.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     32.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      7.10             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     57.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        24.1  23.1  26.1  27.3  33.0  41.7  42.7  35.9  N  N  N  N  U VU VU  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   12.0  15.0  17.0  14.0  10.0  14.0  20.0  19.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        124.6 120.1 113.6 111.5 111.5 113.6 117.9 122.3  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]     1.0  -1.0  13.0  16.0   0.0 -16.0  13.0  50.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   64.0  65.0  64.0  64.0  63.0  55.0  54.0  52.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -6.0  -1.0   4.0   6.0   6.0   1.0  -1.0   0.0  F  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.2%        1.1%        0.7%
 25kt / 24h        0.6%        5.2%        2.9%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        1.5%        0.9%
 35kt / 24h        0.2%        1.5%        0.9%
 40kt / 24h        0.2%        1.3%        0.7%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        4.2%        2.1%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        1.1%        0.5%
 55kt / 48h        0.1%        0.7%        0.4%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        0.5%        0.3%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.8%        0.4%