Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL232020 200919 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     12.50     35.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     15.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      6.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      4.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     50.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        21.8  22.2  21.9  30.2  36.9  39.9  35.5  30.6  N  N  N  N  U  U  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   16.0  17.0  13.0   9.0  13.0  28.0  19.0  17.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        120.1 115.7 111.5 109.4 113.6 117.9 124.6 127.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    -8.0  30.0  35.0  22.0  26.0 -13.0  15.0  48.0  U  N  N  U  U  U  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   64.0  64.0  65.0  63.0  58.0  54.0  51.0  49.0  N  N  N  N  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -1.0   5.0   5.0   7.0   0.0  -3.0  -1.0  -6.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.2%        0.8%        0.5%
 25kt / 24h        0.5%        3.2%        1.9%
 30kt / 24h        0.1%        0.9%        0.5%
 35kt / 24h        0.1%        0.7%        0.4%
 40kt / 24h        0.1%        0.7%        0.4%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        2.8%        1.4%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.6%        0.3%
 55kt / 48h        0.1%        0.5%        0.3%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        0.4%        0.2%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.9%        0.5%