Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL232020 200919 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     12.80     36.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     7.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     36.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     18.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      6.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     61.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        22.7  23.1  30.8  33.1  37.5  40.3  37.6  37.3  N  N  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   16.0  15.0  11.0  10.0  13.0  24.0  20.0  16.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        117.9 113.6 111.5 109.4 113.6 117.9 122.3 124.6  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    48.0  39.0  16.0  26.0   4.0  22.0  13.0  -5.0  N  N  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   62.0  62.0  63.0  63.0  57.0  57.0  52.0  53.0  N  N  N  N  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   4.0   2.0   4.0   4.0  -1.0  -1.0  -4.0  -3.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  F  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.2%        0.8%        0.5%
 25kt / 24h        0.5%        3.2%        1.8%
 30kt / 24h        0.1%        0.8%        0.4%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.8%        0.4%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.6%        0.3%
 45kt / 36h        0.1%        2.7%        1.4%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.6%        0.3%
 55kt / 48h        0.1%        0.5%        0.3%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        0.4%        0.2%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.7%        0.4%