Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL232020 200919 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     13.10     37.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      4.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      6.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     49.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        22.3  30.1  32.2  32.9  38.1  42.7  34.4  34.4  N  N  U  U  U VU  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   16.0  12.0  10.0  11.0  25.0  30.0  19.0  19.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        113.6 111.5 111.5 113.6 117.9 120.1 124.6 124.6  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    40.0  48.0  39.0  44.0  -9.0  21.0  16.0  16.0  N  N  N  N  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   62.0  63.0  63.0  60.0  57.0  52.0  51.0  51.0  N  N  N  N  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   2.0   1.0   1.0   0.0  -2.0  -2.0  -3.0  -3.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.1%        0.4%        0.2%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        1.5%        0.9%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.4%        0.2%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.3%        0.2%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.3%        0.2%
 45kt / 36h        0.1%        1.4%        0.7%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 55kt / 48h        0.1%        0.3%        0.2%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        0.2%        0.1%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.6%        0.3%