Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL232020 200919 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     13.70     38.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      8.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      2.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      5.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     72.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        29.7  30.6  32.4  34.3  41.6  38.9  34.3  34.3  N  U  U  U VU  U  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   12.0  10.0  12.0  15.0  39.0  26.0  20.0  20.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        111.5 109.4 113.6 115.7 120.1 124.6 129.3 129.3  N  N  N  N  N  N  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    51.0  67.0  64.0  34.0   0.0  43.0  12.0  12.0  N  N  N  N  U  N  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   63.0  63.0  61.0  56.0  55.0  49.0  51.0  51.0  N  N  N  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   0.0   2.0   3.0   0.0  -2.0  -2.0  -2.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.1%        0.3%        0.2%
 25kt / 24h        0.1%        1.3%        0.7%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.3%        0.1%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 45kt / 36h        0.2%        1.2%        0.7%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 55kt / 48h        0.1%        0.3%        0.2%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        0.2%        0.1%
 65kt / 72h        0.2%        0.7%        0.4%