Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL232020 200920 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     14.90     41.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     31.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     16.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      5.70             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     69.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        29.8  31.3  35.9  39.9  35.3  28.5  28.5  28.5  N  U  U  U  U  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   12.0  15.0  26.0  41.0  26.0  21.0  21.0  21.0  U  U  U  N  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        113.6 115.7 117.9 120.1 124.6 129.3 129.3 129.3  N  N  N  N  N  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    59.0  41.0   4.0  -8.0  33.0  16.0  16.0  16.0  N  N  U  U  N  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   60.0  57.0  55.0  53.0  49.0  49.0  49.0  49.0  N  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   3.0   4.0  -1.0  -1.0  -2.0  -2.0  -2.0  -2.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.1%        0.3%        0.2%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        1.7%        1.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.4%        0.2%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.3%        0.2%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.3%        0.1%
 45kt / 36h        0.1%        1.8%        1.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.3%        0.2%
 55kt / 48h        0.1%        0.7%        0.4%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        0.4%        0.2%
 65kt / 72h        0.6%        1.5%        1.0%