Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL232020 200920 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     15.50     43.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      3.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      4.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     76.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        31.5  37.3  39.3  39.8  30.5  33.6  33.6  33.6  U  U  U  U  N  U  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   16.0  25.0  30.0  26.0  17.0  33.0  33.0  33.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        120.7 122.9 125.1 127.3 132.0 135.0 135.0 135.0  N  N  N  N  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    39.0  -4.0   4.0  18.0  33.0  10.0  10.0  10.0  N  U  U  U  N  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   53.0  52.0  52.0  50.0  49.0  50.0  50.0  50.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0  -2.0  -1.0  -2.0  -4.0  -3.0  -3.0  -3.0  N  N  N  N  F  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.6%        0.3%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.1%        0.8%        0.4%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.4%        0.2%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 65kt / 72h        0.7%        0.8%        0.8%