Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL232020 200920 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     15.80     45.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     26.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     11.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      7.10             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     72.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        35.8  40.5  38.7  35.6  31.4  35.2  32.3  32.3  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   32.0  31.0  25.0  19.0  20.0  42.0  57.0  57.0  U  U  U  U  U  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]        125.1 127.3 129.6 129.6 134.3 135.0 135.0 135.0  N  N  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]     0.0   9.0  22.0  58.0  29.0   3.0 -31.0 -31.0  U  U  U  N  N  U VU VU
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   53.0  52.0  50.0  50.0  54.0  52.0  52.0  52.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -4.0  -4.0  -3.0  -3.0  -3.0  -1.0   0.0   0.0  F  F  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        1.0%        0.5%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 45kt / 36h        0.2%        1.3%        0.7%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.6%        0.3%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.3%        0.1%
 65kt / 72h        0.9%        1.3%        1.1%