Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL232020 200921 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     15.80     46.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     21.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     12.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      6.50             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     71.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        37.2  35.3  32.2  29.6  34.6  31.6  34.9  34.9  U  U  U  N  U  U  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   30.0  21.0  19.0  20.0  26.0  46.0  52.0  52.0  U  U  U  U  U  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]        127.3 132.0 132.0 134.3 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0  N  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    10.0  25.0  58.0  49.0   2.0  16.0 -32.0 -32.0  U  U  N  N  U  U VU VU
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   53.0  51.0  51.0  52.0  53.0  53.0  54.0  54.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -4.0  -4.0  -3.0  -4.0  -3.0   0.0   1.0   1.0  F  F  N  F  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 25kt / 24h        0.4%        2.4%        1.4%
 30kt / 24h        0.1%        0.5%        0.3%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.4%        0.2%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.4%        0.2%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        2.8%        1.4%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.5%        0.3%
 55kt / 48h        0.1%        1.2%        0.6%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        0.6%        0.4%
 65kt / 72h        1.1%        2.0%        1.5%