Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL252020 201002 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     17.80     84.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     53.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     38.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    117.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]         8.0  14.0  22.4  26.6  34.3  33.7  36.9  24.0 VF  F  N  N  U  U  U  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]  102.0 127.0 115.0  77.0  50.0  47.0  47.0  54.0  F  F  F  N  N  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]        135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    72.0 115.0  98.0  50.0 119.0  41.0  22.0 -12.0  N  F  F  N  F  N  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   80.0  77.0  73.0  66.0  59.0  52.0  50.0  52.0  F  F  N  N  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   4.0   5.0  10.0  11.0   8.0   8.0   4.0   3.0  N  N  U  U  U  U  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        2.8%        8.8%        5.8%
 25kt / 24h       26.0%       48.7%       37.3%
 30kt / 24h       12.6%       25.0%       18.8%
 35kt / 24h        3.9%       25.0%       14.4%
 40kt / 24h        1.7%       23.5%       12.6%
 45kt / 36h       19.6%       46.8%       33.2%
 55kt / 36h       11.0%       22.5%       16.7%
 55kt / 48h       30.9%       25.0%       27.9%
 70kt / 48h       22.9%       15.3%       19.1%
 65kt / 72h       46.1%       23.6%       34.9%