Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL252020 201002 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     18.50     85.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     6.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     45.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     28.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    132.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        15.2  19.5  24.0  26.9  32.5  29.6  31.4  21.2  F  N  N  N  U  N  U  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]  129.0 115.0  88.0  65.0  48.0  45.0  43.0  52.0 VF  F  F  N  N  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]        135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   103.0  93.0  74.0 103.0  64.0  35.0  25.0  25.0  F  F  N  F  N  N  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   79.0  74.0  68.0  63.0  56.0  50.0  50.0  54.0  F  N  N  N  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   5.0  10.0  11.0  11.0  14.0   5.0   4.0   4.0  N  U  U  U  U  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        2.4%        6.3%        4.4%
 25kt / 24h       20.6%       38.6%       29.6%
 30kt / 24h        9.9%       16.4%       13.1%
 35kt / 24h        3.5%       16.4%        9.9%
 40kt / 24h        0.8%       15.7%        8.3%
 45kt / 36h       14.0%       35.4%       24.7%
 55kt / 36h        7.3%       14.1%       10.7%
 55kt / 48h       25.0%       19.7%       22.3%
 70kt / 48h       19.9%       11.1%       15.5%
 65kt / 72h       48.6%       22.5%       35.6%