Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL252020 201003 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     18.80     85.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     48.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     30.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.10             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    128.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        18.6  24.2  25.2  31.4  30.0  34.5  26.8  27.0  N  N  N  U  N  U  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]  112.0  83.0  62.0  49.0  47.0  44.0  44.0  40.0  F  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]        130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    81.0  62.0  74.0 119.0  79.0   4.0  19.0  21.0  N  N  N  F  N  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   76.0  71.0  64.0  61.0  50.0  48.0  47.0  48.0  F  N  N  N  U  U VU  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   9.0  10.0  11.0  10.0   2.0   1.0   3.0  10.0  U  U  U  U  N  N  N  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        4.9%        7.3%        6.1%
 25kt / 24h       22.1%       37.3%       29.7%
 30kt / 24h       11.5%       16.8%       14.1%
 35kt / 24h        5.2%       16.8%       11.0%
 40kt / 24h        1.5%       16.3%        8.9%
 45kt / 36h       14.8%       35.3%       25.1%
 55kt / 36h        7.4%       14.5%       11.0%
 55kt / 48h       17.2%       15.7%       16.4%
 70kt / 48h       11.0%        9.1%       10.0%
 65kt / 72h       32.1%       16.4%       24.3%