Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL252020 201003 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     19.20     86.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     4.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     79.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     69.00             F
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    128.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        22.6  29.0  33.4  31.8  35.0  33.3  23.5  19.4  N  N  U  U  U  U  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   72.0  56.0  48.0  48.0  55.0  53.0  52.0  47.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]        125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    78.0  95.0 126.0  83.0  40.0   5.0  13.0  17.0  N  F  F  N  N  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   70.0  62.0  59.0  53.0  46.0  45.0  46.0  48.0  N  N  U  U VU VU VU  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  12.0  12.0   8.0   8.0   3.0   5.0   7.0   8.0  U  U  U  U  N  N  N  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       11.0%       12.6%       11.8%
 25kt / 24h       34.4%       49.2%       41.8%
 30kt / 24h       17.1%       30.8%       24.0%
 35kt / 24h       12.1%       30.8%       21.4%
 40kt / 24h        4.4%       26.2%       15.3%
 45kt / 36h       16.9%       44.6%       30.8%
 55kt / 36h        7.5%       22.0%       14.8%
 55kt / 48h       13.3%       16.9%       15.1%
 70kt / 48h        6.1%       10.6%        8.3%
 65kt / 72h       23.4%       19.1%       21.2%