Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL252020 201003 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     19.70     87.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    55.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    55.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    20.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     96.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     82.00             F
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    122.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        26.1  32.6  30.9  29.5  37.3  24.5  21.0  19.2  N  U  U  N  U  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   54.0  48.0  48.0  49.0  54.0  55.0  53.0  47.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]        110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   110.0  89.0  67.0  64.0  31.0   6.0   5.0   5.0  F  F  N  N  N  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   61.0  58.0  54.0  49.0  46.0  44.0  48.0  49.0  N  U  U  U VU VU  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  11.0  11.0  10.0   5.0   4.0   6.0   8.0   8.0  U  U  U  N  N  N  U  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       45.1%       29.1%       37.1%
 25kt / 24h       59.6%       69.0%       64.3%
 30kt / 24h       43.7%       61.8%       52.7%
 35kt / 24h       43.7%       61.8%       52.7%
 40kt / 24h       24.5%       56.5%       40.5%
 45kt / 36h       28.2%       52.9%       40.6%
 55kt / 36h       13.8%       31.6%       22.7%
 55kt / 48h       14.0%       23.4%       18.7%
 70kt / 48h        5.2%       13.2%        9.2%
 65kt / 72h       14.5%       18.0%       16.3%