Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL252020 201003 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     20.40     87.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    60.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    60.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    20.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     78.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     47.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    117.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        32.7  34.1  31.0  35.3  32.8  24.1  19.6  20.3  U  U  U  U  U  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   47.0  48.0  47.0  43.0  41.0  38.0  37.0  45.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  N
 Potential [kt]        105.0 105.0 105.0 105.0 105.0 105.0 105.0 105.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   122.0 104.0  71.0  55.0  55.0  19.0  49.0  56.0  F  F  N  N  N  U  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   58.0  52.0  49.0  47.0  45.0  44.0  50.0  52.0  U  U  U VU VU VU  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   9.0  11.0   3.0   2.0   2.0   4.0   5.0   7.0  U  U  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       39.8%       19.4%       29.6%
 25kt / 24h       50.8%       53.5%       52.2%
 30kt / 24h       36.5%       42.4%       39.5%
 35kt / 24h       34.0%       42.4%       38.2%
 40kt / 24h       21.1%       40.6%       30.9%
 45kt / 36h       21.1%       33.2%       27.2%
 55kt / 36h        8.5%       14.7%       11.6%
 55kt / 48h        7.4%       15.5%       11.5%
 70kt / 48h        3.4%        7.1%        5.2%
 65kt / 72h       10.9%       10.1%       10.5%