Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL252020 201004 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     21.00     87.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    50.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    50.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     67.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     29.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.70             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    119.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        32.1  33.6  38.1  41.1  23.9  19.8  19.0  21.9  U  U  U VU  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   47.0  48.0  44.0  43.0  42.0  38.0  44.0  40.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  N  N
 Potential [kt]        115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    89.0  70.0  63.0  38.0  12.0   6.0   9.0  47.0  F  N  N  N  U  U  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   54.0  50.0  47.0  44.0  44.0  46.0  48.0  55.0  U  U VU VU VU VU  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  12.0   5.0   5.0   4.0   7.0   8.0   5.0   4.0  U  N  N  N  N  U  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.5%        1.1%        0.8%
 25kt / 24h        2.6%        7.1%        4.9%
 30kt / 24h        0.7%        2.6%        1.7%
 35kt / 24h        0.4%        2.6%        1.5%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        1.9%        0.9%
 45kt / 36h        0.5%        3.8%        2.1%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.8%        0.4%
 55kt / 48h        0.8%        4.1%        2.4%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        0.8%        0.4%
 65kt / 72h       11.4%        3.8%        7.6%