Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL252020 201004 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     21.80     88.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -15.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     4.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     57.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     42.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    111.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        34.5  41.1  43.8  38.4  23.2  21.1  19.8  28.8  U VU VU  U  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   44.0  41.0  40.0  39.0  38.0  39.0  43.0  40.0  N  N  N  U  U  U  N  N
 Potential [kt]        120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    66.0  86.0  60.0  41.0   7.0  42.0  56.0  53.0  N  F  N  N  U  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   49.0  46.0  45.0  44.0  41.0  45.0  47.0  52.0  U VU VU VU VU VU VU  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   4.0   3.0   1.0   3.0   3.0   2.0   3.0   3.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 25kt / 24h        0.4%        1.8%        1.1%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.5%        0.2%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.5%        0.2%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.3%        0.2%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        1.2%        0.6%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 55kt / 48h        0.1%        1.8%        0.9%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        0.3%        0.2%
 65kt / 72h       11.7%        1.9%        6.8%