Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL252020 201004 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     22.10     88.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    50.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    50.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     60.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     52.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    111.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        38.5  44.3  38.4  28.9  26.3  20.9  27.1  30.1  U VU  U  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   43.0  41.0  41.0  41.0  41.0  48.0  48.0  37.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 Potential [kt]        115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    90.0  69.0  25.0  10.0  -2.0  19.0  60.0  36.0  F  N  U  U  U  U  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   48.0  46.0  44.0  42.0  44.0  45.0  52.0  55.0  U VU VU VU VU VU  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   5.0   0.0   5.0   3.0   5.0   5.0   9.0   8.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        1.3%        1.0%        1.1%
 25kt / 24h        2.9%        7.7%        5.3%
 30kt / 24h        1.1%        2.8%        1.9%
 35kt / 24h        0.9%        2.8%        1.8%
 40kt / 24h        0.4%        2.2%        1.3%
 45kt / 36h        1.6%        5.4%        3.5%
 55kt / 36h        0.2%        1.2%        0.7%
 55kt / 48h        1.6%        4.4%        3.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.2%        1.1%        0.7%
 65kt / 72h        8.8%        3.3%        6.1%