Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL252020 201004 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     22.40     88.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    50.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    50.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     49.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     40.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.30             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    108.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        42.8  39.1  30.2  23.5  21.7  23.6  24.5  29.7 VU  U  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   41.0  41.0  41.0  42.0  39.0  43.0  49.0  41.0  N  N  N  N  U  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]        115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    84.0  61.0  48.0  26.0  30.0  60.0  50.0  47.0  N  N  N  U  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   46.0  45.0  44.0  45.0  48.0  53.0  57.0  64.0 VU VU VU VU  U  U  U  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -1.0   1.0   1.0   3.0   4.0   6.0   1.0   8.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        2.3%        1.2%        1.8%
 25kt / 24h        6.2%       11.5%        8.8%
 30kt / 24h        3.2%        4.3%        3.8%
 35kt / 24h        2.1%        4.3%        3.2%
 40kt / 24h        1.2%        4.0%        2.6%
 45kt / 36h        4.3%        9.1%        6.7%
 55kt / 36h        1.2%        2.4%        1.8%
 55kt / 48h        3.8%        6.3%        5.1%
 70kt / 48h        1.2%        2.1%        1.6%
 65kt / 72h        9.7%        4.4%        7.0%