Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL252020 201005 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     22.90     87.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    50.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    50.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     26.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     20.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      7.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    108.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        37.6  30.3  20.4  20.7  18.9  32.7  27.7  33.2  U  N  N  N  N  U  N  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   42.0  41.0  41.0  42.0  44.0  47.0  55.0  57.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]        115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    12.0  49.0  48.0  27.0  33.0  80.0  51.0  45.0  U  N  N  U  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   48.0  49.0  50.0  52.0  57.0  63.0  67.0  71.0  U  U  U  U  U  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   5.0   4.0   9.0  11.0  10.0  11.0   5.0  -2.0  N  N  U  U  U  U  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.9%        0.7%        0.8%
 25kt / 24h        2.3%        7.1%        4.7%
 30kt / 24h        1.4%        2.5%        1.9%
 35kt / 24h        1.0%        2.5%        1.7%
 40kt / 24h        0.5%        2.5%        1.5%
 45kt / 36h        3.4%        5.9%        4.7%
 55kt / 36h        1.0%        1.4%        1.2%
 55kt / 48h        3.2%        4.6%        3.9%
 70kt / 48h        0.9%        1.0%        1.0%
 65kt / 72h        9.3%        3.0%        6.2%