Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL252020 201005 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     22.80     87.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     13.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     10.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      2.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    100.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        29.4  21.5  22.1  19.4  24.0  32.0  26.5  20.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   41.0  41.0  43.0  47.0  51.0  53.0  47.0  43.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]        120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    35.0  35.0  24.0  22.0  72.0  62.0  39.0  46.0  N  N  U  U  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   48.0  50.0  51.0  54.0  58.0  63.0  69.0  74.0  U  U  U  U  U  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   4.0   7.0  11.0  12.0  10.0  10.0  -1.0  -6.0  N  N  U  U  U  U  N  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.2%        0.6%        0.4%
 25kt / 24h        0.8%        5.6%        3.2%
 30kt / 24h        0.4%        1.7%        1.1%
 35kt / 24h        0.1%        1.7%        0.9%
 40kt / 24h        0.1%        1.7%        0.9%
 45kt / 36h        2.1%        4.7%        3.4%
 55kt / 36h        0.6%        0.9%        0.7%
 55kt / 48h        3.1%        3.6%        3.3%
 70kt / 48h        1.1%        0.7%        0.9%
 65kt / 72h       12.8%        3.4%        8.1%