Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL252020 201005 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     22.60     87.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     7.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      0.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      0.10             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     76.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        24.3  24.1  18.5  17.8  28.8  27.3  25.1  22.7  N  N  N  F  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   42.0  43.0  45.0  51.0  55.0  55.0  47.0  55.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]        125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    27.0  24.0  52.0  47.0  80.0  58.0  37.0  23.0  U  U  N  N  N  N  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   49.0  49.0  51.0  54.0  60.0  66.0  70.0  72.0  U  U  U  U  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   6.0   9.0  12.0   7.0  10.0   5.0  -4.0  -3.0  N  U  U  N  U  N  F  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.4%        0.2%
 25kt / 24h        0.6%        4.1%        2.3%
 30kt / 24h        0.1%        1.2%        0.7%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        1.0%        0.5%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        1.0%        0.5%
 45kt / 36h        0.9%        3.2%        2.1%
 55kt / 36h        0.2%        0.5%        0.4%
 55kt / 48h        3.3%        3.0%        3.2%
 70kt / 48h        1.4%        0.6%        1.0%
 65kt / 72h       18.2%        3.6%       10.9%