Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL252020 201005 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     22.30     87.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -15.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]    10.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      0.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      0.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     71.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        27.3  22.2  20.8  25.1  28.7  24.3  24.4  32.8  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   43.0  53.0  56.0  54.0  43.0  34.0  31.0  54.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  N
 Potential [kt]        135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    14.0  32.0  41.0  55.0  64.0  60.0  54.0  42.0  U  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   51.0  52.0  56.0  59.0  64.0  70.0  75.0  69.0  U  U  U  U  N  N  F  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   8.0   9.0   8.0  11.0   9.0   0.0 -10.0 -12.0  U  U  U  U  U  N  F  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 25kt / 24h        0.1%        2.1%        1.1%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.5%        0.3%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.3%        0.2%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.3%        0.2%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        1.8%        0.9%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 55kt / 48h        1.3%        2.0%        1.7%
 70kt / 48h        0.4%        0.4%        0.4%
 65kt / 72h       13.6%        3.1%        8.4%