Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL262020 201005 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     16.90     77.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     46.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     33.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      7.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     94.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        15.3  13.5  10.8  13.1  11.9  15.0  21.1  26.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]  133.0 135.0 162.0 126.0 105.0  63.0  50.0  27.0 VF VF VF  F  F  N  N  U
 Potential [kt]        135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    75.0  56.0  58.0  32.0  35.0  62.0  38.0  38.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   69.0  70.0  72.0  72.0  69.0  72.0  71.0  69.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -4.0  -1.0   0.0   1.0  -4.0   5.0   9.0  16.0  F  N  N  N  F  N  U  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        2.5%        6.3%        4.4%
 25kt / 24h       34.3%       55.5%       44.9%
 30kt / 24h       18.2%       29.1%       23.7%
 35kt / 24h        4.5%       29.1%       16.8%
 40kt / 24h        3.8%       27.7%       15.7%
 45kt / 36h       38.7%       69.9%       54.3%
 55kt / 36h       31.5%       49.2%       40.4%
 55kt / 48h       62.6%       62.4%       62.5%
 70kt / 48h       62.6%       57.5%       60.1%
 65kt / 72h       62.4%       70.7%       66.6%