Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL262020 201005 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     16.40     78.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     45.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     28.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      7.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     98.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        12.0   8.9  12.4  13.3  17.3  13.3  23.6  26.3  F  F  F  F  F  F  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]  114.0 125.0 139.0 106.0 107.0  42.0  58.0  27.0  F  F VF  F  F  N  N  U
 Potential [kt]        130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    57.0  69.0  30.0  39.0  81.0  28.0  57.0  44.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   73.0  75.0  74.0  73.0  73.0  72.0  70.0  68.0  N  F  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -1.0   0.0   1.0   0.0  -2.0   5.0  15.0  10.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        8.5%       15.5%       12.0%
 25kt / 24h       47.7%       68.2%       58.0%
 30kt / 24h       31.2%       48.7%       40.0%
 35kt / 24h       13.5%       48.7%       31.1%
 40kt / 24h        9.4%       48.7%       29.1%
 45kt / 36h       46.8%       76.2%       61.5%
 55kt / 36h       39.0%       59.7%       49.3%
 55kt / 48h       51.2%       64.6%       57.9%
 70kt / 48h       40.1%       59.6%       49.8%
 65kt / 72h       62.4%       64.0%       63.2%