Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL262020 201005 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     16.20     79.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    50.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    50.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    20.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     62.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     40.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    113.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        11.8  15.3  13.7  16.6  17.3  16.7  20.4  21.4  F  F  F  F  F  F  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]  117.0 121.0 103.0 113.0  66.0  35.0  41.0  24.0  F  F  F  F  N  U  N  U
 Potential [kt]        115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    59.0  18.0  42.0  51.0  74.0  44.0  63.0  43.0  N  U  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   77.0  77.0  74.0  72.0  76.0  73.0  72.0  64.0  F  F  N  N  F  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   1.0   0.0  -5.0   4.0   5.0  10.0   7.0  N  N  N  F  N  N  U  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       58.9%       51.3%       55.1%
 25kt / 24h       80.4%       86.9%       83.6%
 30kt / 24h       78.5%       83.5%       81.0%
 35kt / 24h       70.5%       83.5%       77.0%
 40kt / 24h       42.6%       83.5%       63.0%
 45kt / 36h       76.0%       86.6%       81.3%
 55kt / 36h       76.0%       79.8%       77.9%
 55kt / 48h       51.1%       71.7%       61.4%
 70kt / 48h       27.7%       67.4%       47.6%
 65kt / 72h       50.2%       62.4%       56.3%