Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL262020 201006 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     17.20     80.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    75.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    75.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    20.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     68.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     54.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     91.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        22.5  23.2  24.1  21.1  14.9  18.5  21.5  26.2  N  N  N  N  F  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]  101.0 113.0 138.0  96.0  41.0  34.0  50.0  34.0  F  F VF  F  N  U  N  U
 Potential [kt]         90.0  90.0  90.0  90.0  90.0  90.0  90.0  90.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    44.0  26.0  70.0  56.0  76.0  42.0  31.0  26.0  N  U  N  N  N  N  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   73.0  70.0  72.0  73.0  73.0  75.0  71.0  63.0  N  N  N  N  N  F  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   2.0   0.0  -2.0   0.0   0.0  10.0   3.0  14.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  N  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       88.0%       55.9%       72.0%
 25kt / 24h       90.4%       82.1%       86.2%
 30kt / 24h       90.4%       82.1%       86.2%
 35kt / 24h       89.9%       82.1%       86.0%
 40kt / 24h       89.9%       82.1%       86.0%
 45kt / 36h       75.6%       65.3%       70.4%
 55kt / 36h       61.7%       49.0%       55.4%
 55kt / 48h       46.9%       49.3%       48.1%
 70kt / 48h       23.8%       24.7%       24.2%
 65kt / 72h       14.8%       18.8%       16.8%