Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL262020 201006 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     17.80     82.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    95.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    95.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    30.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     65.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     44.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.70             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     91.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        25.3  27.0  22.9  14.3  16.7  17.7  23.5  29.9  N  N  N  F  F  F  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]  106.0 136.0 100.0  44.0  32.0  33.0  63.0  13.0  F VF  F  N  U  U  N  U
 Potential [kt]         70.0  70.0  70.0  70.0  70.0  70.0  70.0  70.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    49.0  81.0  55.0  26.0  59.0  23.0  33.0  38.0  N  N  N  U  N  U  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   71.0  72.0  73.0  73.0  74.0  75.0  67.0  61.0  N  N  N  N  N  F  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0  -4.0  -3.0   0.0   7.0   3.0   9.0  16.0  N  F  N  N  N  N  U  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       71.9%       28.3%       50.1%
 25kt / 24h       59.8%       51.5%       55.6%
 30kt / 24h       59.4%       43.4%       51.4%
 35kt / 24h       50.2%       43.4%       46.8%
 40kt / 24h       48.4%       41.9%       45.2%
 45kt / 36h       82.5%       38.5%       60.5%
 55kt / 36h       32.2%       23.6%       27.9%
 55kt / 48h       25.5%       13.5%       19.5%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%