Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL262020 201007 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     19.20     84.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   120.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   120.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    20.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     75.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     60.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     93.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        28.1  19.5  22.7  21.0  17.8  25.7  29.1  40.5  N  N  N  N  F  N  N  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]  105.0  45.0  53.0  32.0  43.0  55.0  17.0   1.0  F  N  N  U  N  N  U  U
 Potential [kt]         45.0  45.0  45.0  45.0  45.0  45.0  45.0  45.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    55.0  56.0  59.0  49.0  20.0  52.0  58.0  43.0  N  N  N  N  U  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   75.0  74.0  73.0  76.0  75.0  69.0  63.0  52.0  F  N  N  F  F  N  N  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0  -3.0  -1.0   6.0   2.0  12.0  15.0  17.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       53.3%       11.6%       32.5%
 25kt / 24h       25.7%       16.1%       20.9%
 30kt / 24h       21.7%        9.8%       15.7%
 35kt / 24h       16.1%        9.8%       12.9%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%