Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL262020 201007 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     20.00     85.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   100.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   100.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -20.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     95.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     86.00             F
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     96.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        17.4  20.2  22.1  20.3  22.9  31.2  38.7  44.1  F  N  N  N  N  U  U VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   49.0  52.0  33.0  31.0  59.0  38.0  10.0   0.0  N  N  U  U  N  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         65.0  65.0  65.0  65.0  65.0  65.0  65.0  65.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    54.0  56.0  47.0  50.0  40.0  46.0  47.0  67.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   73.0  71.0  73.0  74.0  72.0  65.0  58.0  46.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  U VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -2.0  -3.0   6.0   4.0   2.0  23.0  17.0  26.0  N  N  N  N  N VU  U VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.7%        1.2%        1.0%
 25kt / 24h        1.6%        4.6%        3.1%
 30kt / 24h        0.6%        2.8%        1.7%
 35kt / 24h        0.1%        2.8%        1.5%
 40kt / 24h        0.1%        1.5%        0.8%
 45kt / 36h       13.5%        1.4%        7.4%
 55kt / 36h        0.1%        0.3%        0.2%
 55kt / 48h        1.5%        0.9%        1.2%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%