Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL262020 201007 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     21.80     88.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    80.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    80.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -20.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     97.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     92.00             F
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    114.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        23.6  20.6  23.5  28.0  33.2  47.1  49.1  45.6  N  N  N  N  U VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   29.0  37.0  57.0  54.0  20.0   7.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  N  N  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         85.0  85.0  85.0  85.0  85.0  85.0  75.1  47.7  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    58.0  26.0  20.0  49.0  32.0   9.0  64.0  67.0  N  U  U  N  N  U  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   73.0  72.0  72.0  70.0  58.0  50.0  44.0  46.0  N  N  N  N  U  U VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   6.0   3.0  -1.0   3.0  19.0  18.0  29.0  26.0  N  N  N  N VU VU VU VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        1.0%        2.1%        1.5%
 25kt / 24h        4.5%       10.8%        7.7%
 30kt / 24h        1.9%        8.2%        5.0%
 35kt / 24h        1.6%        8.2%        4.9%
 40kt / 24h        0.5%        5.2%        2.9%
 45kt / 36h        2.7%        1.6%        2.2%
 55kt / 36h        0.1%        0.3%        0.2%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        1.5%        0.8%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%