Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL262020 201008 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     22.30     90.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    80.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    80.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     93.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     80.00             F
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    120.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        21.8  23.4  27.5  30.4  37.5  47.0  38.9  43.9  N  N  N  N  U VU  U VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   34.0  56.0  55.0  46.0  16.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  N  N  N  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         85.0  85.0  85.0  85.0  85.0  85.0  64.4  44.3  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    32.0  29.0  42.0  27.0   9.0  21.0  48.0   7.0  N  N  N  U  U  U  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   72.0  70.0  68.0  62.0  55.0  46.0  45.0  45.0  N  N  N  N  U VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   4.0   0.0   6.0  12.0  15.0  19.0  22.0  24.0  N  N  N  U  U VU VU VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        4.2%        4.9%        4.5%
 25kt / 24h        9.9%       16.8%       13.3%
 30kt / 24h        5.8%       13.4%        9.6%
 35kt / 24h        5.4%       13.4%        9.4%
 40kt / 24h        1.3%        9.5%        5.4%
 45kt / 36h        4.1%        2.7%        3.4%
 55kt / 36h        0.2%        0.6%        0.4%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        1.5%        0.7%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%