Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL262020 201008 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     23.00     91.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    85.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    85.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     99.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     89.00             F
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    111.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        26.1  26.4  32.9  35.4  44.2  44.9  39.7  45.8  N  N  U  U VU VU  U VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   54.0  54.0  47.0  23.0  11.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  N  N  N  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         80.0  80.0  80.0  80.0  80.0  80.0  48.0  34.6  N  N  N  N  N  N  U VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    15.0  46.0  43.0  36.0  21.0  33.0  52.0  25.0  U  N  N  N  U  N  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   70.0  68.0  61.0  58.0  50.0  42.0  44.0  44.0  N  N  N  U  U VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   4.0  13.0  20.0  18.0  28.0  18.0  21.0  N  N  U VU VU VU VU VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       41.0%       21.0%       31.0%
 25kt / 24h       32.4%       35.4%       33.9%
 30kt / 24h       28.0%       32.2%       30.1%
 35kt / 24h       28.0%       32.2%       30.1%
 40kt / 24h       13.9%       25.0%       19.4%
 45kt / 36h       16.6%        9.7%       13.2%
 55kt / 36h        2.4%        3.4%        2.9%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        1.9%        0.9%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%