Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL262020 201008 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     23.70     92.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    85.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    85.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     95.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     82.00             F
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    120.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        27.0  31.0  33.8  36.8  48.7  40.9  46.5  43.5  N  U  U  U VU VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   47.0  48.0  21.0  22.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  N  N  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         80.0  80.0  80.0  80.0  80.0  61.5  42.7  36.1  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    43.0  46.0  35.0  35.0  29.0  56.0  14.0   2.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   69.0  62.0  58.0  54.0  43.0  42.0  44.0  44.0  N  N  U  U VU VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   3.0  11.0  17.0  15.0  20.0  14.0  14.0  31.0  N  U  U  U VU  U  U VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       20.0%       11.7%       15.8%
 25kt / 24h       18.5%       21.9%       20.2%
 30kt / 24h       16.5%       17.9%       17.2%
 35kt / 24h       16.5%       17.9%       17.2%
 40kt / 24h        4.9%       13.0%        9.0%
 45kt / 36h        7.2%        3.9%        5.6%
 55kt / 36h        0.4%        1.1%        0.7%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.9%        0.5%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%