Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL262020 201009 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     25.30     93.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   105.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   105.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    20.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     97.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     82.00             F
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    117.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        35.3  40.0  47.2  51.4  43.2  45.9  44.2  55.4  U  U VU VU VU VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   21.0  19.0  10.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         60.0  60.0  60.0  60.0  45.7  26.2  16.1  11.5  U  U  U  U  U VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    51.0  26.0  31.0  34.0  40.0  25.0   9.0  17.0  N  U  N  N  N  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   57.0  53.0  50.0  44.0  40.0  45.0  46.0  45.0  U  U  U VU VU VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  19.0  16.0  17.0  17.0  12.0  13.0  24.0  47.0 VU  U  U  U  U  U VU VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       33.0%        7.5%       20.2%
 25kt / 24h        8.8%        6.2%        7.5%
 30kt / 24h        8.8%        3.6%        6.2%
 35kt / 24h        8.8%        3.6%        6.2%
 40kt / 24h        2.4%        2.0%        2.2%
 45kt / 36h       11.0%        1.9%        6.4%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%