Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL262020 201009 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     26.30     93.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   105.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   105.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     97.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     91.00             F
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    113.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        41.4  46.2  47.4  45.9  43.8  44.7  49.0  65.8 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   17.0  11.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         60.0  60.0  60.0  60.0  35.5  22.7  13.0   5.8  U  U  U  U  U VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    50.0  52.0  35.0  20.0  41.0   4.0 -11.0  58.0  N  N  N  U  N  U  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   53.0  48.0  43.0  39.0  41.0  47.0  45.0  40.0  U  U VU VU VU VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  16.0  19.0  14.0  17.0  16.0  13.0  30.0  63.0  U VU  U  U  U  U VU VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        5.8%        1.3%        3.5%
 25kt / 24h        0.9%        1.8%        1.3%
 30kt / 24h        0.9%        0.8%        0.9%
 35kt / 24h        0.9%        0.8%        0.9%
 40kt / 24h        0.2%        0.4%        0.3%
 45kt / 36h        2.5%        0.4%        1.4%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%