Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL262020 201009 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     28.70     93.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    90.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    90.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -15.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     90.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     76.00             F
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    117.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        48.8  45.3  44.5  44.6  46.1  52.8  68.9  68.9 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         75.0  75.0  60.7  46.6  36.0  28.0  22.2  22.2  U  U  U  U  U VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    38.0  49.0  35.0  56.0  22.0  -1.0  44.0  44.0  N  N  N  N  U  U  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   40.0  35.0  38.0  39.0  39.0  37.0  35.0  35.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  16.0  15.0  11.0  15.0  10.0  19.0  63.0  63.0  U  U  U  U  U VU VU VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.1%        0.1%        0.1%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.3%        0.2%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%