Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL272020 201019 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     25.70     55.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     33.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     13.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      6.10             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    111.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        27.1  25.4  25.3  21.2  22.3  13.9  10.5  16.8  N  N  N  N  N  F  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   23.0  23.0  23.0  23.0  11.0   8.0   4.0   1.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]     1.0  17.0  31.0  47.0  68.0  56.0   6.0  28.0  U  U  N  N  N  N  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   45.0  45.0  47.0  48.0  47.0  46.0  54.0  58.0 VU VU VU  U VU VU  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -2.0  -3.0   1.0   7.0  17.0  11.0   2.0   2.0  N  N  N  N  U  U  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.8%        1.7%        1.2%
 25kt / 24h        2.7%       12.7%        7.7%
 30kt / 24h        1.2%        4.3%        2.8%
 35kt / 24h        1.2%        4.3%        2.7%
 40kt / 24h        0.2%        4.3%        2.2%
 45kt / 36h        2.5%       16.3%        9.4%
 55kt / 36h        1.0%        5.0%        3.0%
 55kt / 48h        4.1%        9.9%        7.0%
 70kt / 48h        1.9%        4.9%        3.4%
 65kt / 72h       10.1%       12.3%       11.2%