Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL272020 201019 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     25.60     55.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     26.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      4.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      7.50             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    119.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        26.5  21.0  21.8  22.9  19.0  12.3  18.7  13.8  N  N  N  N  N  F  N  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   22.0  22.0  16.0  13.0  13.0   5.0   1.0   2.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    20.0  45.0  67.0  64.0  38.0  76.0   7.0  10.0  U  N  N  N  N  N  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   45.0  46.0  45.0  44.0  43.0  42.0  47.0  48.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -2.0   0.0   7.0  17.0  12.0   4.0   3.0   1.0  N  N  N  U  U  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        3.2%        3.3%        3.3%
 25kt / 24h        7.8%       19.9%       13.9%
 30kt / 24h        5.2%        9.7%        7.4%
 35kt / 24h        4.0%        9.7%        6.8%
 40kt / 24h        1.2%        9.7%        5.4%
 45kt / 36h        6.0%       21.7%       13.8%
 55kt / 36h        3.0%        7.9%        5.4%
 55kt / 48h        6.2%       13.9%       10.0%
 70kt / 48h        4.1%        7.3%        5.7%
 65kt / 72h       11.3%       12.8%       12.0%