Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL272020 201020 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     25.20     55.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     16.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      1.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      6.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    110.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        22.7  20.3  20.5  20.8  13.3  10.5  20.0  20.3  N  N  N  N  F  F  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   24.0  22.0  14.0  11.0   9.0   4.0   1.0   3.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    49.0  78.0  75.0  60.0  33.0   0.0  40.0  21.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   45.0  45.0  44.0  43.0  45.0  43.0  48.0  47.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU  U VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  10.0  15.0  20.0  23.0  14.0  -1.0   5.0   2.0  U  U VU VU  U  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        2.0%        2.4%        2.2%
 25kt / 24h        5.7%       16.9%       11.3%
 30kt / 24h        3.5%        8.0%        5.8%
 35kt / 24h        2.1%        8.0%        5.0%
 40kt / 24h        1.1%        8.0%        4.6%
 45kt / 36h        7.2%       18.8%       13.0%
 55kt / 36h        3.3%        6.2%        4.7%
 55kt / 48h        8.8%       15.0%       11.9%
 70kt / 48h        5.4%        5.9%        5.7%
 65kt / 72h       15.7%       10.2%       13.0%