Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL272020 201020 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     25.30     55.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      7.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      5.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     93.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        22.6  19.6  20.9  22.3   9.1  21.2  17.4  22.7  N  N  N  N  F  N  F  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   22.0  20.0  12.0  15.0   5.0   1.0   2.0   2.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    62.0  91.0  55.0  62.0  59.0   5.0  60.0  14.0  N  F  N  N  N  U  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   45.0  47.0  44.0  45.0  44.0  46.0  48.0  48.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  23.0  25.0  24.0  29.0   0.0   5.0   6.0   2.0 VU VU VU VU  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.8%        1.4%        1.1%
 25kt / 24h        2.2%       10.3%        6.3%
 30kt / 24h        1.3%        4.2%        2.7%
 35kt / 24h        0.8%        4.2%        2.5%
 40kt / 24h        0.8%        4.2%        2.5%
 45kt / 36h        5.4%       12.8%        9.1%
 55kt / 36h        2.1%        3.5%        2.8%
 55kt / 48h        6.2%        9.8%        8.0%
 70kt / 48h        3.2%        2.7%        3.0%
 65kt / 72h       12.5%        5.7%        9.1%