Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL272020 201020 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     25.90     54.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     16.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      1.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      5.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     96.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        20.3  19.6  21.6  13.5  11.9  18.0  19.6  18.1  N  N  N  F  F  F  N  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   21.0  16.0  12.0  10.0   2.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    88.0  60.0  73.0  31.0  -9.0  50.0  37.0  68.0  F  N  N  N  U  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   47.0  46.0  46.0  46.0  44.0  48.0  49.0  45.0 VU VU VU VU VU  U  U VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  29.0  22.0  26.0  12.0   0.0  11.0   7.0   2.0 VU VU VU  U  N  U  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        2.9%        3.1%        3.0%
 25kt / 24h        7.7%       20.5%       14.1%
 30kt / 24h        5.4%       11.5%        8.5%
 35kt / 24h        2.7%       11.5%        7.1%
 40kt / 24h        2.7%       11.5%        7.1%
 45kt / 36h       10.2%       21.7%       16.0%
 55kt / 36h        4.9%        7.7%        6.3%
 55kt / 48h        7.1%       13.5%       10.3%
 70kt / 48h        3.7%        4.3%        4.0%
 65kt / 72h       11.5%        7.3%        9.4%