Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL272020 201020 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     27.40     55.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    55.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    55.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    15.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     4.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     32.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      8.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    110.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        24.0  22.4  14.4   9.2  19.9  16.1  19.7  24.6  N  N  F  F  N  F  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   14.0  14.0   7.0   1.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0 109.3  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    58.0  77.0  42.0  45.0  29.0   1.0  26.0  61.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   42.0  44.0  46.0  42.0  48.0  52.0  49.0  50.0 VU VU VU VU  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  26.0  26.0   7.0   1.0   7.0   6.0   2.0   0.0 VU VU  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       17.0%        9.8%       13.4%
 25kt / 24h       30.6%       46.2%       38.4%
 30kt / 24h       24.9%       42.5%       33.7%
 35kt / 24h       23.1%       42.5%       32.8%
 40kt / 24h       16.4%       42.5%       29.4%
 45kt / 36h       23.8%       38.9%       31.3%
 55kt / 36h       13.0%       20.9%       16.9%
 55kt / 48h        8.9%       22.4%       15.7%
 70kt / 48h        4.5%        8.9%        6.7%
 65kt / 72h        5.4%        8.2%        6.8%