Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL272020 201021 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     28.30     56.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    60.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    60.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    15.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     24.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     13.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.30             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    104.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        22.4  15.5   8.6  10.3  17.3  26.3  21.5  33.3  N  F  F  F  F  N  N  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   14.0   4.0   1.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        105.0 105.0 105.0 105.0 105.0 105.0 102.0 102.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    56.0  46.0  54.0   7.0  23.0  21.0  53.0  69.0  N  N  N  U  U  U  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   43.0  44.0  43.0  44.0  50.0  49.0  48.0  47.0 VU VU VU VU  U  U  U VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  23.0   8.0   2.0   0.0  10.0   2.0   1.0   4.0 VU  U  N  N  U  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       25.3%       12.5%       18.9%
 25kt / 24h       32.5%       49.9%       41.2%
 30kt / 24h       30.0%       49.9%       39.9%
 35kt / 24h       28.4%       49.9%       39.2%
 40kt / 24h       25.8%       49.9%       37.8%
 45kt / 36h       26.6%       33.4%       30.0%
 55kt / 36h       14.7%       17.0%       15.9%
 55kt / 48h        7.3%       17.5%       12.4%
 70kt / 48h        2.8%        6.1%        4.4%
 65kt / 72h        2.7%        4.4%        3.6%