Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL272020 201021 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     28.90     57.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    75.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    75.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    20.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     26.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      4.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    100.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        17.1   8.8   8.6  17.7  16.6  20.6  31.1  31.2  F  F  F  F  F  N  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    3.0   1.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   1.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         90.0  90.0  90.0  90.0  90.0  90.0  87.0  84.6  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    41.0  57.0   3.0  12.0  10.0  38.0  83.0  56.0  N  N  U  U  U  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   43.0  41.0  45.0  48.0  49.0  46.0  45.0  43.0 VU VU VU  U  U VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   8.0   2.0   0.0   3.0   4.0   2.0   3.0   0.0  U  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       65.7%       31.9%       48.8%
 25kt / 24h       61.6%       71.0%       66.3%
 30kt / 24h       61.6%       71.0%       66.3%
 35kt / 24h       61.6%       71.0%       66.3%
 40kt / 24h       54.7%       71.0%       62.9%
 45kt / 36h       36.7%       32.8%       34.8%
 55kt / 36h       22.0%       17.7%       19.8%
 55kt / 48h        7.3%       20.1%       13.7%
 70kt / 48h        2.4%        5.5%        3.9%
 65kt / 72h        1.1%        2.6%        1.8%